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CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00pm EST
. economy is the most vibrant, adaptable, innovative and creative economy on the planet. i think that means we're coming out and starting to see that in many sectors today. we're bullish and think you need to look at this on a positive frame. >> maria, i'm less bullish than that. that sounds very optimistic. i would love to believe that, but if you compare valuations of equities versus bonds, yes, there's a huge spread right now, but that doesn't necessarily make equities really cheap. it's just a relative trade. i think, also, yes, we're a vibrant economy. we certainly are a strong economy. i think it's really unsustainable, the level of debt that we have in this country. we have $1 trillion in debt. i heard an incredibly succinct way of describing this. rick santelli actually said it this morning about how you can't say you're cutting $800 billion when really $80 billion is really from wars that are just going away. that's not really a cut. that's taking away the addition. i think you need to be pretty conservative. i think there's going to be a rally here year end, but you have to
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 7:00pm EST
destroying the economy, but you are right. they have to do some serious spending cutting. hell, 20% of gdp is too high. 1% is where we ought to be. i got to get out of here. the producers are in my ears. many thanks to you all. we appreciate it very much. >>> now the next question is, will reducing the tax detux for charitable giving really hurt america's charities? you may be surprised about what i'm going to say about this, and the facts back me up. get ready for a debate, because free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. people don't make charities just because of tax considerations. i'm larry kudlow. they have a heart, and that heart is what driving them to be beneficial. [ male announcer ] if you suffer from heartburn 2 or more days a week, why use temporary treatments when you can prevent the acid that's causing it with prevacid24hr. with one pill prevacid24hr works at the source to prevent the acid that causes frequent heartburn all day and all night. and with new prevacid24hr perks, you can earn rewards from dinner deals to music downloads for purchasing prevacid24
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00am EST
irresponsible statements that he's heard in some tile. soo can the economy avoid the cliff and rides above? anyway, senior u.s. economist and managing director at ubs. do you think we'll get a deal? >> i think we'll get a deal. do we get it before the holidays or after for markets, it matters. it's been a drag for the last nine months. so the idea that there is more uncertainty now than there was six months ago, how does that work? there was no fiscal cliff deal six months from now and still no deal. so i'm not sure why we think there's more uncertainty. i would say if you really think about it the president has a lot of ways to delay the impact. for example, our withholding table don't have to get change order january 1. even if you haven't struck a deal, you don't adjust the withholding tables. for now you can delay the pain. so there is wiggle room in terms of when the impact has to be felt. >> but is there where wiggle rom the investing world who looks at the united states and says these guys are a bunch of keystone cops. this cost us with the last round of negotiations back in the sum
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00am EST
the german economy and this is a big divergence. so that's a change. but looking over time, all stocks have the component of what they call the economic return. speculative return which is it for change and the valuation that the market puts on it. over time, one is a possum gain and the other is zero sum gain. sometimes good news, sometimes bad news. but over time the kind of net being nothing. >> we'll see what happens. good to have you on. we'll be out in westminster, joined by the british shadow business secretarier to. we'll talk currencies. find out why one strategist is bullish on the currency. after the ramp up in m&a that we've seen this year, we'll also speak to an expert in los angeles that says the fundamentalses for deal activity in 2013 are looking more solid. so where will the money flow in the new year, that's at 11:20. and the outlook for u.s. credit market appears less rose city. we'll speak to a moody's analyst that says high duration credit could be badly exposed. the european central bank is announcing either monetary policy decisions later today. economists expect
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 6:00am EST
minutes away. count do countdown is on. the economy probably added about 80,000 jobs last month. reuters consensus is a little higher at 93,000. the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 7.9% and economists say the slow down in nonfarm payrolls will reflect the effect of sandy. joining us this hour is bank of america merrill lynch global research senior research economist michelle mire and we'll talk through everything that's been happening through jobs and what to expect. but first, there is a developing story. an earthquake off the northeast coast of japan triggered a tsunami warning. the warning has been lifted, but it was a 7.3 quake. so far no reports of any injuries or damage. it was for the same area devastated by an earthquake and tsunami back in march of last year. we will continue to bring you any developments. in the meantime, steve has some of the morning's top other stories. >> let's start with the markets. asian stocks rallying to 2012 highs overnight. the nikkei edging lower after hitting a se hitting hitting a seven month closing high yesterday. european t
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm EST
much uncertainty in washington. we do have slowing economies in europe and in the u.s. >> right. david, what do you say right now? break the tie for us. >> break the tie. in the near term, there's an epic tug of war between extremely aggressive monetary easing and just total disdain for what they're doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. in the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. in the longer term, the fed will prevail. there's so much mistrust on stocks that i think that still can be a positive catalyst for stocks relative to traditional bonds over the next 12 months. >> i'm going to push back a little bit on that. >> i'm going to break the tie in ralph's favor. >> david, i want to push back a little bit on that. in terms of -- like, is the fed really that much of a factor these days now in terms of keeping the market afloat? >> absolutely. >> it's not losing its bang for its buck? >> it's not as powerful as it was in the fall of 2008 or even 2010, but when you consider that, u.s., long bonds, 1.5%. short-term interest rates, zero. negative on an inflation adjuste
CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
america's economy at stake. president obama's initial offer on the fiscal cliff was resoundingly rejected by republicans. it included a $1.6 trillion tax increase, double what he campaigned on. also included $400 billion in entitlement cuts eliminating the need for congressional approval to a raise the debt ceiling. the markets rebounded later in the week following the latest hopes on a fiscal cliff agreement. america's economy grew at a faster pace than initially expected in the third quarter of the year. the second reading of the gross domestic product showed it at rate of 2.7% spurred by stronger inventories and exports. the securities and exchange commission is looking for a new chairman. mary shapirp schapiro announcin she will step down after nearly four years on the job. the obama administration says it will announce a replacement in the near future. >>> starbucks has a new way to spend a lot of money. it is introducing the most expensive blend made from a rare costa rican variety named geisha. it is $7 a cup and only available in 48 stores. if you order one, drink it slow
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 7:00pm EST
the day that he will let all the tax cuts expire and he'll let the economy go into a recession. i do not believe he'll do that. i'm call his bluff. he will have to make a deal with republicans because, yes, they will blame the republicans for the recession. i know that's what you're going to say. you know what there will be truth but it's obama who gets blamed for having another recession in his second term. it will be herbert hoover obama. he has ta deal. steve, i'm calling your bluff on this whole thing. >> i'm for him for making a deal and i think he will. the republicans could pass a bill tomorrow to extend the bush tax cuts for everybody making less than 250 and then we could have a discussion about the people making over 250 from now to the end of the year but we could ensure people making under 250 don't see their paychecks, $2,000 taken out of it on january 15th and january 30th. >> why should they do that? >> why can't they protect the middle class. the president says look i have them in my budget. i went through his budget. 258 proposals on taxes or spending. 15 on medicare
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 7:00pm EST
proposal. >> all right. so where are we right now? even while the fate of our fragile economy hangs in the fiscal cliff balance, for that let's turn to our distinguished guests. peter goodman. he's the huffington post business editor on a former "new york times"man. we welcome back republican congresswoman nan hayworth and haddy heath, senior policy analyst with the independent women's forum. okay. so mcconnell laughed at the tim geithner proposal. and john boehner says we're at a stalemate. and president obama himself is kind of getting ugly about this enemy's list. we've seen this before from him. my proposal is, republicans have to come with a counter offer. right now. there's no point in blasting obama. just a counter offer. i want to read from today's newspaper. this is what mitch mcconnell said. "higher medicare premiums for the wealthy, an increase in the medicare eligibility age, and a slowing of costs of living increases for programs like social security. and then republicans would agree to include more tax revenue in the deal but not from higher tax rates." now, let's just
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 9:00am EST
invest in things that matter to the american economy. we think we can do that. we have a good chance to do it now. it's important that we do it. i think we're going to get there. >> given tough talk over the weekend, why aren't we waking up to down numbers, red arrows? >> europe is terrific. bond rates are phenomenal. a great run. china numbers are better. i think that there's a lot of people who feel like doug cast does who writes with me with a piece in "the new york times" saying that -- >> most stuff is nontaxable accounts any way. most stocks that people won't be as motivated to sell as people think. of course that doesn't necessarily deal with the increase in payroll taxes and the whole recession side of it. it does deal with the stock market side in terms of selling. >> why not say, listen, fiscal cliff, i have to cut numbers. i have to cut guidance. i think many ceos will cut guidance because of the possibility that the amt is going to -- this alternative minimum tax, people don't know they have to write a check for $3,500 at the end of the year. once you jump over the cliff,
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
, everybody continues to hold back on the uncertainty. and we believe the economy is pretty well positioned potentially in 2013 if we can put this behind us. so i think a lot of what's going on is what you would expect to see in this negotiation, very public negotiation, which is not the best way to do it. i think at some point, the president and the speaker are going to get in a room and have some very serious dialogue as this gets closer. my view is that both the administration and the republicans would prefer to put a deal together, and the outlines of that are on the table. >> you talk about the cliff or the abyss? we need to separate the two. it would be nice to have like a bridge to that $4 trillion deal that includes entitlement, tax reform. in fact, i don't know why the president isn't talking about that more with the simpson-bowles. >> the president did say that he doesn't think there's anything we can get done. >> as a bridge to that. always talking about the high end. >> actually, joe, i think the administration wants to see a deal come together here. >> for what, the
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
obama administration if the economy doesn't recover. >> all right. many thanks, scott rasmussen, appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >>> with just 26 days until we fall off the tax and fiscal cliff, two dozen house republicans have apparently defected from the boehner plan and signed a bipartisan letter with democrats. people are now asking is there a fallback position for the gop? well, here now to tell us is house majority whip california republican kevin mccarthy, the number three man. mr. mccarthy, as always, thank you for coming back on the show. can i get your comment on this letter, two dozen republicans, they're talking about tax rate flexibility along with a bunch of democrats. what's your take, sir? >> well, remember what they're saying here. what they're saying is that they're going to put everything on to the table. what we've been talking about for so long is where the president has been awol, this is a spending issue that we have a real problem with. we agree that we'll provide revenue, but we do not want to hurt a pro growth economy here. so it's how you go about
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 9:00am EST
finds that exporting nat gas will actually help the u.s. economy, but not every day is a winner. >>> vice chairman alan blinder will tell us what he thinks. >>> a new study from the federal government shows exporting u.s. natural gas overseas has the potential to reshape the global energy markets. the obama administration has said the study will be central to the decision on whether to export. he said exporting the gas would be a bigger impact on the economy. >> slap in the face of dow chemical. of coke, not coke the beverage company. but this was something that was hotly disputed within the romney campaign. he really let this stuff go because the romney campaign had some very big givers that were chemical companies. >> do we know, say, very bad, how much will prices conceivableably go up if we become an exporter of natural gas? is it that great a difference? >> we burn offer more natural gas than we use. burn off, in other words literally, you see those flames, we flare more than we use. so we got a real excess of this stuff. >> the government says that the -- 6.6% of current u
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
happen in terms of the markets. do you expect the economy to go over the fiscal cliff? what kind of reaction might we see in the market if that were to materialize? >> well, if we saw the market sell off in a big way, i don't think anybody believes we're going to go over the fiscal cliff. there will be some sort of resolution. they'll come up with some tax cuts, some breaks in spending, and probably kick the can down the road on a lot of it. i love the way this market is acting. it's not selling off with all the bad news, all the bickering, all the bad words on each side. you've got to love the way that this market is holding up here. doesn't mean investors need to be carefree, but overall, it looks like the market is setting up with a lot of negative sentiment out there. looks like there's a lot of opportunity for a big run higher once we get some form of resolution. i really believe we're going to get it. >> you think by year end? >> i really do. i think they want to go home for christmas. they're not going to want to not go home for christmas. you can always count on politicians
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00am EST
next year that doesn't sound too rosy. you talk about the economy contracting half a percent. challenges in the core countries. so walk us through how important the german vote is tomorrow and whether greece gets its aid as to the more broad brooutlook. >> the outlook is not improving. it's deteriorating for the eurozone. economic fundamentals are getting worse particularly in the countries of germany and france. these are the countries we revise down the most. in the periphery, there are signs that the recession is stabilizing. we're below the consensus. typical view is that the economy will broadly stagnate next year, we think it will continue to shrink and the ecb will continue to cap interest rates and perhaps at shall point the bond buying program will be in spain. >> and so when we talk about the sequence of events that markets are looking for the next couple of months, the main one still seems to be when spain asks for aid. pushed into the first quarter of next year now in your view? >> i think there are two windows of opportunities really. the first one stretches in t
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 11:00pm EST
growth story. even when the economy is not doing so hot and the underlying economy is not doing so hot. it helps their customers become more efficient. though use this proprietary technology and collect data from satellites, laser, and other met methods and they have applications for pacific software designed to tell their customers what they need to do to improve the efficiency of their workers out in the field. especially at construction sites and infrastructure builds and they work along many dimensions. they can cut labor costs, pesticide costs, or fuel costs. they can help them imcustomer service. at the end of the day it comes down to other companies finding new ways to squeeze more money out of their businesses and that's the kind of pitch that never goes out of style. certainly not one the old tremble could have offered. i'll give you an idea. tremble has joibt technology with -- anything from software solutions and machine control technologies. this gives the company a tremendous outsource international sales force. it looks likes tremble has become the real deal. they rec
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 11:00pm EST
down there. at the moment, we can barely focus on anything but washington. the whole u.s. economy, your entire portfolio is hostage to two warring parties, demonstrating a level of partisanship that's been empirically measured to being the worst since 1860, the origins of the civil war. let's hope it doesn't take out that particular benchmark. we're witnessing a titanic struggle between those who are willing to rise above politics, and compromise to cut spending and increase taxes. yes, that's the actual compromise radical middle position as dave cote from honeywell says, and those who simply refuse to accept tax increases or entitlement cuts. given that the president's saying he campaigned and won on a platform of higher taxes for the wealthy and the republicans say they were elected because they pledged to behind the scenes power broker grover norquist they would never raise taxes, it certainly seems like the impasse cannot be solved and we got to go over the cliff. not only do the hard liners refuse to rise above partisanship in order to avoid a government mandated recession, which i
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 5:00pm EST
economy, but at what cost? we'll take a deeper dive to find some answers. but first, our top story tonight. >>> everyone cares about the fiscal cliff, except, seemingly, the markets. just 25 days until the year end deadline and still no deal out of washington. still stocks quietly climb higher. the dow closing today at a one-month high. what gives? just an assumption that a deal -- >> it almost gets back to that you never short. we're all waiting for some type of closure on the fiscal cliff. so everyone's afraid to take that stab in the dark and say, you know what? things look terrible. no matter how they paint the picture, things look slower in the next couple of quarters than they do right now. am i right? >> yeah. >> so global growth, you have everything coming in, global growth is going to be terrible. growth here around 2%, 2.5%. so people want to short the market, they're just so afraid to because every time they short it, it bounces right back. >> and it seems now with headlines, the markets don't seem to react. we had tim geithner yesterday saying, absolutely, we're willing
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 12:00pm EST
inflexion report for the chinese market and kmchinese economy. if you look at the data, pmi data are more positive. industrial production is up. retail sales are bouncing back. but more importantly i've been speaking to a lot of companies on the ground. >>> we're on the cusp of a very important week, right? the kind of data that we get will get more. some of the i flags data is coming out and some of the production numbers as well. so we should pay close attention in the coming week. >> that's correct. there won't be major surprises. i think the coming week will show data that are basically in line with what we've been discussing, basically some recovery across the various industries. indeed, it's important to pay attention to not only macro data. we've seen it improving across the corporate sector and that's a very willielcome signal to th asian market sometime in 2013 the market should begin to recover. >> joe? >> jing, any concern that we are setting up for a similar scenario to 2011 where because of the developed economies are all massicly easing monetary policy that that inflation ge
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 1:00pm EST
destroy the u.s. economy? we'll show you some stats to make you go -- hmm. we'll talk more about apple's slide, should microsoft's ceo steve ballmer get the boot if the surface fails. and we will introduce to you quite possibly the world's dumbest demolition crew. it involves a multi-million dollar bore chateau and really bad bulldozing. >> yikes. see you at 1:00, brian. thank you. >>> listen up wall street recruiters, a recent rash of college cheating scandals has shown academic dishonesty is unfortunately a very big problem on campus today. who are the worst offenders? tonight's premier of "faking the grade -- classroom cheaters," we'll tell you. they'll find out which students are most likely to cut corners in the battle to gain an edge. >> reporter: don mccabe and his canadian colleague collaborate on research. mccabe says in the u.s. business students cheat the most. engineering students are often near the top of the list. and so are communications and journalism students. women studied at one university said they don't cheat when they're in a women-only class. but when it's a coed
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 2:00pm EST
. >> a lot's riding on this debate. this is too important to our economy, it's too important for our families to not get it done and it is not acceptable to me and i don't think it is acceptable to you for just a handful of republicans in congress to hold middle class tax cuts hostage simply because they don't want tax rates on upper income folks to go up. >> reporter: now just minutes after that, speaker of the house, john boehner, the republican leader here on the house side of the capitol, took to the podium as sort of a downbeat speaker boehner saying that we are at an impasse here in washington in these negotiations. >> no, there's a stalemate. let's not kid ourselves. i'm not trying to make this more difficult. if you've watched me over the last three weeks, i've been very guarded in what i have to say because i don't want to make it harder for me or the president. >> reporter: so, brian, as you can tell, they're talking about a stalemate here in washington but the very fact that mcconnell is floating new ideas in the "wall street journal" just within the past couple of minutes
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00am EST
agreement for restructuring the economy in this transition period as resources must shift from unproductive to productive activities. it is the latter that create jobs. this reallocation process, though sometimes painful in the short run, i'll say always painful in the short run, carries the seed of future prosperity. a growing body of knowledge shows that by increasing the ability of the economy to adjust so that factors can be reallocated to the most competitive firms, aggregate labor productivity can increase substantially. some studies indicate a gain of as much as 20 force 30%. the current focus on competitiveness in france leading towards an institutional and fiscal set up that can support firms investment in innovation is therefore a welcome step in the right direction. another important aspect is the growth and competitiveness enhancing potential of further market integration in europe. one example is a very recent study which finds that applying the eu patent would raise the gains for european firms from patent and inventions by 60%. furthermore, those gains would more
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
economy. >> it's interesting you say that. i feel like one day we're going to back and say, remember whe could borrow at 3% to buy a house. if companies have to borrow the money to pay a dividend, why issue a dividend? >> well, i think we forgot whose money it is. it's the shareholders' money through the company. tax law makes it very difficult to bring the money back in. they've already made the money selling their products and service around the world. so it's much cheaper with low interest rates the way they are to borrow the money and pay the dividends to the shareholders. the tax code actually just represents a very inefficient methodology of transferring the profits to the shareholders as well as influencing where companies are likely to be looking for future profits around the world. >> they've talked in washington periodically about a moratorium on allowing corporations to repatriate some of that money without a tax a consequence. that would help to some degree, wouldn't it? >> absolutely. that would be a very fabulous thing to do. the companies have already made the money, it's
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00am EST
this is slower than previous quarters when you compare it to some of the other developed economies, you can see how well australia is holding up. we've seen growth of just 2.5% in the u.s., 1.5% in canada and zero growth in the uk. locally, cutbacks in government spending weighed on the numbers and lower commodity prices also impacted on cash flow and the government is facing more criticism about its effort to keep the budget in surplus while the economy grows. >> the government has had the objective of making sure that we would bring our budget back to surplus when growth has been around trend. what we've been seeking to do through good budget policy has been to provide maximum flexibility to the reserve bank to a just rate so. the government will always put in place appropriate budget settings which will support growth and jobs. >> still, analysts say growth could slow further as the mining investment boom peaks. yesterday, the bank of australia cut interest rates to a record low of 3% and traders are looking further easing next year to offset the falling talks of trade, the high
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 12:00pm EST
cash. but on these pullbacks, i think you want to be buying, because i actually think the economy is getting better, particularly when you look at housing, consumer, even auto and aerospace, all those data points point to 2013. >> are you buying the market on any pullback? >> i like the santa claus rally with josh and would be raising cash. i think the risk in the markets further on the down side than the up side. but when you see some real pullbacks, buy the stock if you like it. >> morgan stanley's top market watcher has been bearish all year and not ready to change his mind. adam parker joins us live. welcome back to halftime. good to see you. >> how are you, scott? >> 1167 is where you thought we would be at the end of the year. you'll be far short. why aren't you willing to change your tune for 2013, because you're not looking for much next year. >> look, a little bit like the conversation you were just having. we try to forecast earnings. and then we try to forecast the multiple or that p/e ratio you're going to pay for earnings. so if i told you on january 1st you were going t
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 3:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff could have on the economy here, mark? >> honestly, we're essentially sector agnostic with we talk about managing money on a five-year duration for our clients. when you look at some of the master limited partnerships that are out there, the kinder morgans, specter energy looks like a good play. we're looking at the 4% to 5% yielders, companies that have a good track record of increasing those yields. we're sticking more with consumer staples. we're definitely tilted towards that defensive end. but we're going to stay there. as long as growth is slow, that's where we feel we can get the best risk adjusted returns for our clients. >> all right. thanks for joining us. mark, good to see you. rick, have a good weekend. gordon, have a good time at the beacon tonight. we're less than an hour from the trade month. kayla rounds up november's big winners and losers. >> hey, bill. the indices may have danced along the flat line for the entire month, but there were clear winners and losers on either side of the tape. to the downside, several companies falling markedly. exelon dow
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 3:00pm EST
. will the white house let our economy go over the fiscal cliff if a deal on higher tax rates for the wealthy is not reached? we're checking it out. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day men's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day men's 50+. it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. >>> welcome back. this very public negotiation on the fiscal cliff still does not seem to be closing in on a deal. the white house out in campaign style events regularly, making multiple media appearances, kle including timothy geithner right here in 25 minutes. >> but would things be done faster if it was done privately? in his latest column, jeff goldfor a compares u.s. budget talks to merger proxy battles. jeff joins us to explain about that. plus, we have
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00pm EST
economy slows down. alexia, on the other hand, not no. 23409 so hot. the stock has tripled since i first got behind it it's down about 14% since i highlighted it as an anointed growth stock two months ago. that's unacceptable. alexia is a orphan drug maker whose lead drug has been incredibly successful. however, even though alexia raised guidance, not unlike tractor supply, the stock sold off because the sales only met expectations rather than beating them. given the huge run in the stock going to the quarter. alexia had to do more than just meet the expectations. they had to beat that and crush them. and this time around, it got crushed. that said, to me the market overreacted, alexia has received fda approval to use solera for new indication that could be worth $900 million in peak sales and another $2.5 billion worth of new indications that the company is working on for this one medication. plus intriguing things in the pipe. although they're still in the early stages of development, so don't look for them to produce numbers yet. my view is that the street model punished the sto
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 7:00pm EST
like he doesn't want a recession. i will take that. remember, these guys don't think that the economy is going to suffer that much. they think they will take credit. that is how they think. talk about social engineering. what happened to the jack kemp argument. what about empowerment. john f kennedy had the same thing. i don't want to bring some down and some up. i want to bring everybody up. where is that argument? >> and jack kennedy said, if you want to raise tax revenues, you must cut tax rates. the opposite of what obama said. they don't believe it. they want a western european style cradle to grave state. they want to make sure that they preserve it and they want to pay for it. the middle class is going to be nailed and they are going to blame republicans and they are going to have to go back to get more money. isn't it mostly true, taxing the rich, and you poll the whole electric. the middle income people believe they are going to be next. middle income say you are not going to get enough money there. they are going to hit me and there is going to be a carbon tax. president oba
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 5:00pm EST
that keeps the economy moving is the effect of wide deficits, monetary policies. i am not feeling that good about it. >> we can string our own story together. we have to admit that in november consumer discretionary was the top performing s&p sector. how do you account for that divergence? people are now getting concerned about the consumer? >> we are getting worried about the consumer in china. we knew the industrial story in china was problematic and the consumer was the good news. now we are worried about the consumerer over here despite the fact that housing prices are improving and we are headed to the holiday. dan mentions tiffany. mcdonald's which really hung in there and done well not as well as yum but mcdonald's is faced with problems as far as same store sales and turnover. none of these consumer names, none of them are doing really well. >> to the yum story if we are going to say yum is having problems in china you have to think about the other multinationals that are highly leveraged to china growth, a big driver of the future growth will come from that region. you th
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 9:00am EST
this economy. >> there's a great article today in one of the papers about how apartment building, we have a shortage of apartments and shortage of housing and shortage of autos and shortage of office buildings developing, shortage of shopping centers, shortage of shopping malls. this is what begins a movement. you have to hire eventually. now you could say people are not looking for work, come on. look, jobs are here. they can -- it can be just easily reversed if you have no idea what is the future because of washington. >> given the data points that we've had in terms of claims numbers that did reflect an impact from sandy, they said 85,000 jobs or 86,000 jobs were sliced because of impact of sandy. average hours worked unchanged. doesn't that -- i don't know -- doesn't that bring into question a little bit the participation in the survey. how can it have no impact whatsoever? it seems curious to me. >> it does call into question whether these numbers can be accurate. we have been starting to think let's check accuracy. why isn't this done by s.a.p.? why aren't numbers done by oracl
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 2:00pm EST
-month tax raise destroy the economy but spending $200 a month on a smartphone somehow doesn't? >> because of the aggregation problem. if you just look at one person it doesn't look so bad. but when you sum it up across 300 million americans and you factor in that 70% of our gdp is consumer spending, in europe it is about 55% so we're more dependent on the consumer for our growth -- then you understand why the congressional budget office -- i don't think they've ever done this before -- is actually predicting a recession if we go over an stay over the cliff. so for any one person, it might not be that big a deal -- although when you think about $2,000 over the course of a year for a family whose median income is about $5,000, that starts to sound like real money, too. but when you aggregate it up, you're really looking at a recession probably if we go over an stay off the cliff, unemployment reverses course, goes up to 9%, really ugly stuff. >> nifk cocole, does the averag american really understand what's going on? how much of this impact do they understand right now? do they
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00pm EST
some kind of deal is inevitable. they feel it won't have much of an impact on the economy. mellow drama even. and this is their group of strong holders. well, i should be better off going over the cliff. rich will pay more on their fair shares and higher taxes on dividends. and the bloated defense budget. unnecessary social programs. i think we aren't where we need to be when it comes to abandoning all hope. i think those people are polyannas. i think we go into a recession with lots of layoffs and the fiscal cliff was designed to pr compromise. everyone knew about the growth. fewer jobs, larger deficit. as i said last night, it doesn't matter, we can pick our stocks and buy them down. ulta salons, but i want to suggest to other groups that are going to give you bang for the buck, betting that the hope will be squeezed out and the bottom gets put in before a deal is made. why not? we know the auto market is for 11 years now and we have been sweet on ford domestically. what are some of the other key areas. asia already turned. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to w
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to the treasury market. once his comments were
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
is too important to our economy. it is too important for our families to not get it done. it's not acceptable to me and i don't think it is acceptable to you for just a handful of republicans in congress to hold middle class tax cuts hostage simply because they don't want tax rates on upper income folks to go up. >> then one of those congressmen who's presumably on the president's naughty list today, speaker john boehner, who came out just a few minutes after the president spoke. he talked here on capitol hill a little bit about the stalemate that he sees these talks being at this point. sort of a glum take here from the speaker of the house. obviously he's saying that these negotiations not broken down. they continue to talk but a stalemate is the way he characterizeded that. so tyler, not great news here on capitol hill, but there's another week next week. we'll get another crack at this thing. >> eamon, thanks very much. where do we stand? are we any closer to a deal? we thought we'd give you our little guide with the daily spin on our "rise above" deal meter. as you can see, af
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
well down the road because the economy's not ready to handle a lot of these changes in terms of cuts and things like that. but the idea that it feels like they're not going to do anything. you could wand ind up with the situation, let it all ride. we won't deal with any of it right now. >> republicans have had a good pint that tax increases are immediate and spending cuts are put off. >> when is a good time? they're talking about another four or five years of we're not going to be ready to have any type of austerity because it's still this huge debt overhang. what color is that tie? >> i don't know. red, i think. >> is it a red rutgers tie? >> not intentional. i completely forgot about the game. not having paid attention to the most important sports event of the year. >> they lost. but they played well. >> they showed up. i didn't see it, but i was happy they showed up. i have my rise above button back on because i thought i was going to have a rutgers button so which would not have allowed me to -- but now i had room for this. you got no sleep. >> yeah. >> were you tipping them on b
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00pm EST
care that just does fine when the economy goes in recession. look, it's a real possibility if you go off the cliff. >>> plus a limited supply of medical office space. this is a nice, steady business. let's take a closer look with scott pierce. mr. peters, welcome to "mad money" so much. >> thank you for having me. >> i try all the time to find companies that might be beneficiaries of the affordable health care act. i stumbled on you guys. you're the one? >> we think we are. we've been fort. health care systems are now running like businesses. with 30 to 40 million more insured coming up, you this need a most affordable location to off those services. those are mlbs, they're on campus, and jim, i think over the next 10, 20 years there will be core critical real estate. >> most of them are in crowded fields. the hotels divvied up, a lot of retail space. this is a $250 billion sector. you seem like you're just scratches the surface. >> 250 billion is the estimated value. they're going to monetize some of these assets. it's a great opportunity for us to be selective, toss disciplined, by
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
trying to inject money in a credit fashion into their economy. and we certainly think we can bring our fixed income expertise and continue to help them. >> that would make sense for cantor. ireland was the mf-will first they were in trouble, then the model for the world. what got them into trouble again, housing or real estate or something or bad banks or -- and now again they're kind of a model for everyone on how to handle it. is that basically the last five years? >> absolutely. certainly was a real estate bubble there. now there are austerity measures being put in place and they're actually following through on the austerity measures. so certainly they'll come out first and actually look pretty good. >> so where is the most business for you for cantor in ireland, what will you be doing? >> certainly it's an equity based firm. we'll bring our fixed income expertise, probably become the primary dealer there. the irish government will continue to have to have bond issuances as well as corporate debt will start to become a much bigger part of their economy. >> who else looked at th
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
economy like we had in 2007, those policies of george bush where we had 18.5% of our economy coming to the federal government as revenue, that would be another $419 billion. so combined, that would be $750 billion per year of additional revenue. now, president obama's proposal of punishing success, it's hard to say exactly what it will be, but somewhere around $75 billion. it's a tenth of what we get with economic growth. and the rob with punishing success, with increasing marginal tax rates or really increasing taxes, is you put at risk that growth that is ten times more effective. so again, i'm just looking at what works. and we need to calm the markets. i don't want to play brinksmanship. it's a unfortunate that the president really isn't negotiating in good faith. he's just moving the goal posts. >> although the lead story on the "wall street journal" is about how the president may be relaxing that position. he may not insist on returning to the pre-bush tax cut rates for those wealthiest 2% or whatever the situation is. that may not mean that he's not looking for some increase
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00pm EST
do you think we come out on the fiscal cliff? are you expecting the economy to go over the fiscal cliff and see these taxes go high hadder and spending cuts take effect? >> my personal view is i'm still optimistic. i think the conversation has been constructive since. do we have a solution on the table yet? no. but i'm optimistic we'll get to a framework. >> why? >> there's been enough dialogue. there's been movement. everyone seems to recognize the problem. everybody realizes there has to be a revenue component, spend component, entitlement reform component. for us, the business community and all the ceos, certainty is the greatest stimulus for us. >> do you support tax rates going higher? >> me personally, as an individual, more importantly the business community, which i'm part of. we support something inclusive. if rates were higher in a videocasset vacuum, i'm not sure we'd be supportive of that. we have to make sure the consumers, those who spends a lot of the dollars, the middle class, are protected in this exercise. >> i guess the question i'm really getting at is, do you
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
. >> austin, it's clear from this jobs report the economy is stuck in second gear. what's it going to take to get to a higher gear right now, do you think? >> i think we got to get the growth rate up in the economy. certainly europe's not any help. what's happening in china and japan is not any help. then you add on top of it what's coming out of washington. i don't think you should get your hopes up about figuring it out before the end of this year. i think there's a pretty deept chance we go over the cliff and then try to sort it out in the beginning of the year. >> lovely. >> joe, when did 146,000 jobs become good? have we become so pessimistic -- have our expectations come so low we're cheering 146,000 when we should be well over 200? >> plus the downward revisions for the previous two months. >> although, those revisions were almost all in government. mandy makes a good point. 150,000 a month, which has been the average over the past is a months or so, is not great. if this was a normal recovery, we'd be growing at 4% instead of 2 on gdp. employment would be well over 250. however, th
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 2:00pm EST
christmas but there is a lot of other parts to the economy. many are looking for fourth quarter gdp much lower than that revision that we had recently on third quarter gdp. >>> folks, here's your market battle. on one side china data coming in better than expected overnight. there's a little more optimism about a greek resolution. in the other corner, continued worries about what else? tax hikes and spending cuts. notice i did not call it the fiscal cliff. so ultimately which wins out? let's ask gina sanchez, director of equity and asset allocation at rubini global economics. dan, i know you've been traveling, london, san fran, all parts in between last couple of weeks. how concerned are your clients about what's going to happen on january 1st? >> it's not so much that they're concerned about what happens on january 1st because i think the bulk of our meetings have focused on the fact that this isn't really a cliff so much as a lot of people have been saying a slope. more importantly to your first question, i have been on the road for the better part of 2 1/2 months now. i don't rea
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 6:00pm EST
, the wow factor. innovation. it's what drives our economy forward. and tonight cramer's got his eyes on a solution to a life-altering problem. whether you're stranded after a storm like sandy or one of the billion people in the world who don't have electricity, this device lets you create your own power. don't move. you've got to see this. and later, data and dollars. as companies head to the cloud, the business of big data becomes all the more crucial. cramer's found one stock at the center of finance and figures that could be attracting some potential suitors. the takeover talk is just ahead. plus -- >> we're going to do some work on this. >> announcer: you sent cramer back to the books. now he's got the answers you need. plus, jim responds to your tweets @jimcramer #madtweets. and your e-mails just ahead. all coming up on "mad money." don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer. #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. [ male announcer ] t
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00pm EST
fundamentals in the u.s. economy are clearly improving, and you also have a stabilization or soft landing happening in china at the same time. >> david kelly, what do you want to be doing here? what's your strategy for the fiscal cliff? do you think we go over it, and what do you want to do? >> for a long-term investor, you don't try and play this one. i agree with stephanie about the market probably going higher once they get a resolution. they will get a resolution. it's possible it could go into early january. i still think they're more likely to get a resolution done before the end of the year. either way, they'll get a resolution done. when that happens, then we'll resort to looking at the u.s. economy, which is strengthening a bit here. also, the extreme and relative valuations between high-quality fixed income and equities will push money towards equities. i would not run for cover here because of the volatility. i think you just have to, you know, hold your ground through this and hope that the market moves higher next year. >> bob, this activity at the close today, you su
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 5:00pm EST
higher taxes on part of the american economy. that's part of a balanced framework. that's definitely some progress. what we need to have them acknowledge is that the rates go up and if they're willing to accept that and commit to that as an agreement, then we think we can do something really good for the economy. >> what you have here is really the administration laying out the parameters of getting a deal done. it's going to be tax hikes on the wealthiest 2% going back to the bush tax cuts, although there was a little play in the idea. it didn't have to be 39.6%. he didn't say that had to happen, but he says he thinks that's the best way for a deal to get done to raise the money they need. and a deal on the debt ceiling. so, guys, i'm not sure where we are on this deal. i know the market looks a little bit upbeat. geithner says he thinks the deal looks like it will get done. it sounds like the two sides are pretty far a park. >> it sounds like he's implying for the republicans to make the move and acknowledge that the taxes will go higher. is that what you heard from the conversatio
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 11:00pm EST
the economy is slowing because of the cliff. so what do we do? is it game over for equities should i take my -- hall of fame today and just go home? no, no, no. let me first say absolutely not. we simply have to get eveninger to a cliff resolution or to a situation where no one expects resolution. going with the latter, hey, that is new. let me walk you through here. today last week. last week, genuine hope a deal would get done. today, last week. if you recall, we heard from a host of executives. they met with the president. came out, the mic in their faces. they felt like compromise was in the air. compromise was real, imminent. even heard from the always skeptical ceo of goldman sachs. far apart. it could be hammered out without real difficulty if it were in the private sector. behind the scene, from skeptical to more positive. when i heard those execs touch base with them and spoke with them on both sides of the aisle i thought there might be more common ground, but in the last 72 hours many came to the conclusion, partly me because i went down to meet, common ground, some a lo
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
fiscal cliff and having big tax increases. they feel that they have slowed their economy too much and it's time to put more gasoline on it. they actually have the ability to do that. the communist party is very well run. ceo is terrific. they may declare a special dividend. >> the ceo is no andrew mason. >> no. if the ceo were to leave, i don't know if the stock would pop. >> bob pisani is on the floor watching what's moving on this friday. good morning, bob. >> we opened flat by in large. i have to say the commentary this morning, the mood is gloomier than i have seen recently. there's been a lot of hope that a deal could be reached here. how's this for gloom? 2013 is going to be tough. fiscal cliff or not. how's this one? we lose either way. you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 12:00pm EST
all the spending cuts and tax increases throwing things off kilter. i think the economy improves next year. we think emerging economies improve as well so global growth but the real catalyst is going to be the grand bargain where they come down to the agreement and people have confidence that we're going to be back on the track to a better health physically in thfi fiscally. >> your expectation is sort of a band-aid now, maybe a sizable band-aid. >> right. >> and then handle it all, reform the tax code and so forth, at some point next year maybe by the middle of next year. >> middle to latter part of next year. you just can't get all the hard work done between now and the end of the year but we think you can get enough of an agreement to hit the pause button and get down to the hard work. >> you have an aggressive target for year's end next year at least where we currently sit. >> right. >> 1600 on the s&p. so a 10% to 15% move in stocks. >> right. >> are you less concerned than most people seem to be about earnings and earnings slowing down into next year? >> we feel pretty good
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